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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd